Boom in Tablet Sales Expected to Dampen PC Shipments

The Topology Research Institute of Taiwan and the Gartner Group of the United States, both of which track the information-technology market, predict that the robust demand for tablet PCs will strike a blow at global shipments of PCs this year.

Topology projects worldwide tablet shipments of 51 million units for this year, a huge jump from last year's 16.7 million systems. The company's forecast for laptop shipments this year is around 213.7 million, up 5-10% from last year.

The institute ascribes the slow growth of laptop shipments mostly to brisk sales of tablets and smartphones, the lingering European debt crisis, and the sluggish U.S. economy.

However, Topology feels laptop shipments will grow to 117 million systems in the second half of this year, compared with 96.79 million systems during the first half, thanks to the Christmas shopping season in the West and the Oct. 1 National Day holidays in China.

Taiwan's contract suppliers of laptop computers, who fill most of the world's demand, are also expected to ship more units in the second half--an estimated 102 million systems—once the defective Intel Sandy Bridge chipsets are fixed and the influence of strong tablet shipments tapers off. Their second-half shipments are likely to account for 55% of their total for the year.

Topology feels that Quanta Computer Inc. will retain its title as the world's No.1 contract producer of laptops this year, as it has secured contracts from Apple and is expected to lure some contracts from HP and Sony away from rival suppliers. Quanta's laptop shipments are expected to grow 11% this year.

Although Acer Inc.'s clearance of laptop inventories in Europe took a toll on laptop shipments by Compal Electronics Inc. and the Wistron Corp. in the first half of this year, contracts from the Lenovo Group and Dell are expected to shore up the two companies' sales in the second half.

Contract suppliers Pegatron Corp. and Inventec Corp. have abandoned laptop manufacturing for smart handheld devices and severs after losing contracts to competitors, according to Topology.

The two companies are boosting their investment in tablet development, and Topology predicts that this will help boost shipments of non-iPad tablets surging 725% from last year, to 16.5 million systems this year. Shipments of iPad tablets this year are forecast at 34.5 million systems, compared with just 14.7 million systems in 2010.

Western Europe and mainland China are expected to be the major markets for non-iPod tablets this year, with explosive growth there predicted for the second half.

Topology's research shows that big-name multinationals including Samsung, Acer, and Asustek have begun shipping tablets running on Android 3.0 OS in the second quarter, and that they will introduce Android 3.1-based tablets in the third quarter. Mobile-phone makers like HTC, RIM, and Motorola, as well as PC makers such as HP, Dell, and Toshiba, will commit more resources to tablet projects in the second half of this year.

Topology estimates that Samsung will export around four million tablets this year, becoming the top supplier of non-iPod models, followed closely by Acer, Asustek, HP, and RIM.

Gartner recently cut its 2011 forecast for global growth in PC shipments from 10.5% to 9.3%, forecasting total shipments at 385 million systems. Behind the cut is the company's belief that economic uncertainty in mature markets will put a damper on procurement sentiment and that budgets for tablets will crowd out PCs.

Gartner believes that enterprises will replace consumers as the major driving force in the PC markets of developed economies this year, because consumers will be more thrifty in the face of the uncertain economic recovery. The company also notes that after navigating the 2008 economic downturn, enterprises have now resumed the PC upgrading projects that they put off during the recession.