47 M. E-bikes to be Sold by 2018: Pike Research

Taipei, April 12, 2012 (CENS)--Global market for electric bicycles is forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% between 2012 and 2018, resulting in global sales exceeding 47 million units by 2018, according to a new report from Pike Research, the market research and consulting firm specializing in clean technology markets.

In 2012, over 30 million e-bikes will be sold, making such transportation the world's best-selling electric vehicle, said Pike.

Rapidly accelerating urbanization, the increasing need for low-cost transportation in developing markets, and expanding opportunities for new market entrants are all helping to drive e-bike sales.

China is anticipated to account for 42 million of these e-bicycles in 2018, giving it 89% of the total world market. The e-bike market is anticipated to generate US$6.9 billion in worldwide revenue in 2012, growing to US$11.9 billion in 2018, Pike Research said.

Under a more aggressive forecast scenario, worldwide e-bicycle sales could reach 51 million units and US$13.2 billion revenue in 2018, the clean-tech market intelligence firm forecast.

“E-bicycle manufacturers and importers in North America and Latin America continue to struggle with a weak distribution network and modest demand,” said senior analyst Dave Hurst. “As a result, the e-bicycle market is experiencing an accelerated rate of acquisitions and business failures. Nevertheless, sales are expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of nearly 22% in North America from 2012 to 2018.”

The vast majority of the e-bikes sold in China, the world'' largest market, utilize sealed lead-acid (SLA) batteries. While this has resulted in extremely low-cost e-bikes in China, it has also led to a number of challenges including e-bike traffic congestion, lead pollution, and manufacturers effectively ignoring laws relating to e-bike speed and weight limits. Pike Research said it anticipates that the global penetration of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries would grow from 6% in 2012 to 12% in 2018. Cost pressures from Asia Pacific will keep manufacturers interested in SLA batteries through this decade, but once manufacturing efficiencies have driven down the costs of Li-ion, global consumers would start to see the decline of SLA as the battery of choice in e-bikes.