First Generation LEDs Fade Out as Market Readies for Renewal

Market research company TrendForce estimates that approximately 5.8 billion LED luminaires will reach the end of their lifespan and be retired in 2024, creating a substantial demand for replacements. This demand is anticipated to help the LED lighting market rebound, pushing the total demand for LED lighting to 13.4 billion units.

According to TrendForce’s recent report, LEDs now account for around 70% of the global luminaire market. Traditional luminaires that can still be replaced by LEDs are becoming increasingly limited to niche applications. As a result, the primary replacement wave for LED adoption is largely complete.

In 2023, despite a decline in LED lighting shipments, the market volume remained steady due to rising demand for secondary replacements, which is becoming a major market driver. TrendForce projects that secondary replacement demand will peak between 2025 and 2028. Given the typical LED lifespan of 25,000 to 40,000 hours (or roughly 7 to 10 years), luminaires installed from 2014 to 2016 are now reaching the end of their lifecycle.

By 2025, secondary replacements will surpass new installations and primary replacements as the primary market force. By 2028, approximately 78% of LED lighting demand is expected to stem from these secondary replacements.