Taiwan's Economy Predicted to Grow About 3.4% for 2015
2014/12/19 | By Judy LiSeeing Taiwan's real GDP growth reach 3.64% in the first three quarters, Institute of Economics of Academia Sinica, an academic institute in Taiwan, has lately raised prediction of the GDP growth this year to 3.42%, up 0.11 of a percentage point from 3.31% predicted earlier.
However it forecasts economic growth of 2015 at 3.38%, which is even lower than this year's forecast and also lower than 3.5% predicted by Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS).
Academia Sinica indicates the key factors for lukewarm economic climate in 2015 include slowing investments by China, continuing deflation in Europe and recently reported negative interest on bank deposits in Switzerland, likely more declines in global crude oil prices, and possible fluctuation in international exchange rates and unpredictable global financial markets due to U.S. monetary policies as interest rate hike.
The institute also predicts the consumer price index (CPI) next year to edge up 0.72%, a new low since 2010 to ease worries in Taiwan of deflationary woes.
But Taiwan Research Institute (TRI), a think tank on the island, forecasts Taiwan's real GDP growth for 2015 at 3.43%, higher than 2014's 3.36% by merely 0.07 of a percentage point.
TRI also predicts annual growth of 2015 private spending of 2.77%, almost the same as 2014, with CPI growth to climb 0.85% while wholesale price index (WPI) to decline 1.58%.
Due to predicted continuing drop of international crude oil prices, TRI forecasts annual growth of commodity & service exports next year of 6.87%, a little higher than that of this year, with lowered forecasted growth of private investment to 3.97% from 4.41%. (JL)
| TRI's Predicted Annual Growth of Taiwan's Economic Indicators (2014 & 2015) Unit: % | ||
| Economic indicator
| 2014
| 2015
|
| GDP
| 3.36
| 3.43
|
| Private spending
| 2.76
| 2.77
|
| Government spending
| 3.16
| -0.62
|
| Gross fixed capital formation
| 2.62
| 4.15
|
| Export of product & service
| 5.97
| 6.87
|
| Import of product & service
| 6.34
| 5.93
|
| CPI
| 1.31
| 0.85
|
| WPI
| -0.16
| -1.58
|
| NTD:USD rate
| 30.09
| 31.4
|