DGBAS Reduces Taiwan's Economic Growth Forecast for 2013 to 1.74%
2013/12/03 | By Judy LiTaiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) recently reduced its prediction of Taiwan's economic growth for 2013 to 1.74% from 2.31% and for 2014 to 2.59% from 3.37%, both lower than those done by most forecast organizations.
DGBAS attributes the reduction in forecast to the lack performance of exports, particularly the exports in the fourth quarter that have decreased by US$3.7 billion or about NT$109.8 billion from the expected. The declining exports have influenced private investments; so DGBAS has slashed its prediction of the annual growth of private investments in the fourth quarter to 1.83% from 5.42%.
Market observers say that the localization of the operations of Taiwanese enterprises in mainland China is also one of the main reasons for the drop of Taiwan's exports as the exports to China have gradually shrunk.
Likewise, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) sees languid economy on the island this year and has lately pressed down its forecast on Taiwan's economic growth to 1.93% for the year.
Despite falling exports and flabby economy seen in Taiwan, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the global trading volume will post at 2.9% in 2013 and may further expand to 4.9% in 2014.
| Prediction for Taiwan's Economic Growth for 2013 & 2014 Unit: % | |||
| Forecast institution
| Month of forecast
| 2013
| 2014
|
| Taiwan Research Institute
| June
| 2.14
| --
|
| Academia Sinica
| July
| 2.35
| --
|
| DGBAS
| November
| 1.74
| 2.59
|
| Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute
| September
| 2.38
| 3.45
|
| Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
| October
| 2.01
| 3.21
|
| Barclays Capital
| October
| 1.6
| --
|
| TIER
| November
| 1.9
| 3.11
|
| Global Insight
| November
| 1.9
| 3.2
|
| Economist Intelligence Unit
| November
| 2.0
| 2.9
|
| DGBAS Forecasts of Taiwan's Economic Indicators for 2013 & 2014 | ||
| Economic indicator
| 2013
| 2014
|
| Real GDP
| NT$15.2915 trillion
| NT$15.6883 trillion
|
| Nominal per capita GDP
| US$20,850
| US$21,360
|
| Economic growth
| 1.74%
| 2.59%
|
| CPI growth
| 0.94%
| 1.21%
|
| WPI growth
| -2.38%
| -0.53%
|
| Private consumption growth
| 1.46%
| 1.72%
|
| Private investment growth
| 5.32%
| 4.37%
|
| Export growth (US$)
| 0.44%
| 3.07%
|
| Import growth (US$)
| -0.31%
| 3.82%
|
| Trade surplus
| US$32.89 billion
| US$31.89 billion
|
| Commodity & service export growth
| 1.6%
| 2.76%
|
| Economic Growth of Major Economies for 2013 & 2014 Forecast by Global Insight Unit: % | ||
| Economy
| 2013
| 2014
|
| Globe
| 2.4
| 3.3
|
| U.S.
| 1.7
| 2.5
|
| EU
| -0.4
| 0.8
|
| China
| 7.8
| 8.0
|
| Japan
| 1.8
| 2.0
|
| South Korea
| 2.7
| 3.6
|
| Singapore
| 3.5
| 3.7
|
| Hong Kong
| 3.1
| 3.7
|
| Taiwan
| 1.74
| 2.59
|