Shipment of PCs Worldwide to Reach 318 M. in 2010: TRi

Rising popularity of mobile broadband

Driven by increasing netook (mini-note PC) shipments, the 2009 global personal computer (PC) market will see better-than-expected result at the year-end-with shipment to dip only 1.27% year-on-year (YoY) rather than the -2.4% as originally forecasted, according to Topology Research Institute (TRi) of Taiwan.

Taiwan's largest private market research firm is optimistic about the 2010 global PC market, believing the global recovery will push the total shipment into positive territory to 318 million units, a 10.37% YoY increase, with notebook PCs (including netbooks) expected to account for 185 million units, a 21.7% YoY shipment growth.

Some positive factors are expected to fuel the recovery of the overall PC market, including the new Windows 7 operating system (OS), rising popularity of mobile broadband internet access, reported uptrend in corporate spending, personalized product trend, and increasing launches of new products etc. The TRi also forecasts a replacement wave in the second half of 2010 amid corporations.

Narrowing Price Gap

As price gaps continue to narrow between desktop and notebook PCs, the belief in industry is that more people will buy NB PCs at a faster pace than desktops, especially in the consumer segment that is characterized by purchases without significant concern for system-management but personalized features. With the roaring sales of netbooks, the market penetration of notebook PCs has already reached 54% in 2009, higher than the 50.5% estimated earlier. The TRi, however, forecasts such penetration to speed even faster: with notebook PCs to occupy 59.5% of the market by 2010.

H.J. Tseng, a Tri researcher, points out that, with PC shipments being tallied on per-person basis rather than per-household earlier, the PC market is steadily expanding as consequence. Also with wider setup of 3.5G networks worldwide, the low mobility of Wi-Fi technology is gradually less of an issue, with high-speed mobile broadband access to further highlight the obvious advantages of notebook PCs.

2010 Market Focuses

Models with 15-inch screens are still believed to be the staple in the 2010 notebook PC shipments, accounting for about 38.1% of such delivery. As a major player in the 2009 notebook PC market, the netbook-typically used as recreational devices by budget-conscious consumers-will continue to exert influence in the consumer segment, while screen sizes steadily grow from 10.1-inch to 11.6, 12.1 and 13.3. Such popularity has driven many major international brands to launch netbooks, with others planning to do so. Also new product unveilings will spark new momentum in the 2010 NB market, setting the stage for higher growth in the segment.

One notable development that may shudder the notebook PC market is the launching of ARM-based smartbooks by different brands and Google's unveiling of its Chrome OS in the second half of 2010. Compared to netbooks, smartbooks will be smaller, cheaper, and have longer battery life and instant-on capabilities, backers say. In addition, the Windows 7-based tablet PC is also expected to fuel growth in the overall market; while the Apple Tablet with touch-control functions and App Store service are also believed to be another market focus in 2010.

Top Players

The top-4 players in global PC market will keep their rankings in 2009, including HP, Acer, Dell, and Toshiba; and the same applies to the No. 5 to No. 10 brands. Fujitsu of Japan has dropped to No. 10 this year; while Lenovo of China has held onto No. 5 with its home market as patron. In 2010, TRi forecasts that the rankings may reshuffle with some uncertainty, the Samsung-Sony competition will get increasingly fierce, and the gap between the top-2 HP of the U.S. and Acer of Taiwan is expected to narrow.

Influenced by netbooks, the average selling prices (ASP) of notebook PCs in 2009 fell clearly by 18.2%, a seldom-seen event, and the downtrend in price will continue into 2010, TRi points out. Vendors will continue seeking ways to cut cost and raise margins, providing more room for low-cost EMS (electronics manufacturing service) providers to survive.

Tseng believes that the Taiwan-based notebook PC contract maker Quanta Computer Inc. will achieve a 37%, the highest among local counterparts, shipment growth in 2010; while Inventec Corp. and Pegatron Corp. will be more severely challenged amid unceasing global competition.

The TRi researcher urges Taiwan-based EMS to further vertical and horizontal integrations as well as more aggressively diversify product lines.

Table 1

Table 2

Taiwan Top-4 Notebook PC Makers' 2010 Shipment Forecasts (1,000 units)
	Q1'09	Q2'09	Q3'09	Q4'09 (e)	2009 (e)	2010 (f)
Wistron	5,300	6,000	6,900	7,300	25,500	32,000
Compal	6,350	7,900	10,550	11,700	36,500	44,000
Inventec	4,100	5,500	6,200	6,000	21,800	23,000
Quanta	6,900	7,900	9,700	12,000	36,500	50,000
Top-4	22,650	27,300	33,350	37,200	120,500	149,000
YoY	Q1'09	Q2'09	Q3'09	Q4'09 (e)	2009 (e)	2010 (f)
Wistron	23.3%	30.4%	11.3%	7.4%	16.4%	24.5%
Compal	3.1%	28.5%	52.9%	87.2%	43.4%	20.5%
Inventec	43.9%	71.9%	24.0%	30.4%	39.3%	5.5%
Quanta	-13.8%	-9.2%	0%	18.8%	0.0%	37.0%
Top-4	6.3%	20.5%	20.0%	34.1%	21.1%	23.7%
Source: TRi, November 2009.